Payments and financial services ecosystem with two-sided network effects between Square (merchant) and Cash App (consumer). Thesis centred on cross-ecosystem monetisation and under-appreciated compounding of the Bitcoin/financial services flywheel.

• Feb 2026Merchant + Consumer fintech platform; two-sided ecosystems create wide moats; Initiate Buy; TP $68.
• Q4 2025Block's rally is catalyst-driven, not moat-driven; following 28% price appreciation since initial coverage, downgrade to Neutral; TP $71.

China social-commerce leader with defensible moats; AI-driven content cost curve falling supports long-term value creation. Market prices this as a low-growth stock despite structural moats and an improving monetisation trajectory.

• Oct 2025Initiate Buy. Structural moats intact; AI tailwind on content cost curve; TP HK$112.
• Q3 2025Structural moats support long-term positioning; maintain Buy at HK$95 (lowered from HK$112).
• Q4 2025Moats remain but reinvestment required is higher than assumed; cutting TP to HK$50 from HK$95; downgrade to Neutral.

State-backed DRAM player that achieved peak competitive position precisely where it is forced to leave. Structural tension between technological capability and geopolitical constraints creates a unique analytical lens ahead of a potential IPO.

A commoditised loan manufacturer squeezed between consumers demanding the lowest APR and institutional buyers requiring high risk-adjusted yields. The Ulysses contract psychology supports consumer stickiness but does not resolve structural margin compression.

White-label software platform modernising loan origination. Market optimism on a mortgage rebound underestimates share erosion and consumer banking headwinds. Path to durable profitability remains unclear at current valuation.

CFO-office SaaS leader with durable moats but valuation fully reflected at initiation. Thesis validated when OneStream agreed to a $24 cash buyout, 33% above estimated fair value at time of coverage.

• Sep 2025Initiate Neutral; TP $17. Moats intact but market already pricing in compounding.
• Q3 2025Competitive positioning intact; valuation fully reflected; maintain Neutral; TP $17.
• Jan 2026OneStream agrees to $24 cash buyout, 31% premium to prior close and 33% above estimated fair value.

SaaS platform automating financial close and invoice-to-cash. Resegmentation and agentic AI signal potential turnaround, but valuation is already full at initiation. Monitoring for durable re-acceleration evidence.

Streaming platform dedicated to alternative content, effectively a speculative biotech investment underpinned by unproven technology. Lacks durable business moats, a view now reflected in the stock decline since coverage.

• Oct 2025Initiate Neutral; lacks durable moats; effectively a speculative biotech proxy.
• Q3 2025Market validates thesis; Gaia lacks durable moats now reflected in stock; Neutral despite -29% since coverage.

AI-driven lender in a commoditised market. Path to sustainable profitability remains unclear and the competitive advantage from AI-based underwriting is unproven across full credit cycles.

Women-first dating app with a clear structural niche but significant execution risk on the AI platform transition. Hinge gains reflect a broader consumer preference shift that continues to weigh on Bumble core user metrics.

• Jul 2025Initiate Neutral; women-first positioning a moat, but execution and valuation risk balanced.
• Q3 2025Hinge gains reflect preference shift; significant AI platform execution risk; Neutral; TP lowered to $3 from $5.

Niche SVOD shifting strategy but path to results highly uncertain. Market overestimates the long-term durability and renewal probability of AI licensing revenue. One-off training monetisation is not a durable annuity.

• Jul 2025Initiate Sell; AI licensing is one-off not durable annuity; TP $2.5.
• Q3 2025Shares +24% post-earnings; market overestimates licensing durability; downgrade to Neutral; TP $2.5.